Polish Economy Forecasts

What do we do?

We build econometric models describing economic phenomena in the best possible way. We forecast the developments in the Polish economy and publish reports covering this issues based on our models and expertise. In our analyses, we use Macroeconomic Monitoring , which is a compact and reliable compendium of knowledge about the economic situation in Poland. Polish Economy Forecasts are also support for another project of SKN FM – Cabinet Shadow Monetary Policy Council.

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How do we work ?

Polish Economy Forecasts are divided into six sectors :

* Nowacasting.

* Economic growth.

* Inflation.

* Labor market.

* Foreign trade.

* Expert adjustments.

The first step in the process of preparing forecasts is to estimate the missing predictor variables by nowcasting. Then the data are introduced into the models previously obtained through the selection of their appropriate type and specification. Finally, we meet in a group and discuss the possible adjustments of forecasts provided by econometric tools. The culmination of our work is forecasting report, issued twice a year in May and November.

What are our goals?

The primary mission of International Finance Society is to make Poland a good and wise country . Acting on Polish Economy Forecasts , we also try to fulfill this task by: 1 ) Internal development We organize all kinds of trainings on econometric models and packages , which deepen the knowledge obtained at the university . 2 ) External development We share our knowledge and experience with student community through the publication of reports available in paper and electronic form at SGH and on our website and fanpage.

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Achievements

We take part in the contest for the best macroeconomic analyst organized by the National Bank of Poland, and the daily Rzeczpospolita in which we regularly beat the biggest financial institutions.

Want to join us?

If you are interested in a quantitative approach to macroeconomics, inventing models and forecasting based on them – please contact the coordinator of the Polish Economy Forecasts , Rafał Starościk (r.staroscik@gmail.com ).

Publications

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